Last November (2022), a World Bank report stated that as temperatures steadily rise in India due to climate change, keeping spaces cool using alternative and innovative energy efficient technologies can open an investment opportunity of $1.6 trillion by 2040. This also has the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions significantly and create nearly 3.7 million jobs.
The report also predicted: India is experiencing higher temperatures every year. By 2030, over 160-200 million people across the country could be exposed to lethal heat waves annually. Around 34 million people in India will face job losses due to heat stress related productivity decline. The current food loss due to heat during transportation is close to $13 billion annually. By 2037, the demand for cooling is likely to be eight times more than current levels. This means there will be a demand for a new air-conditioner every 15 seconds, leading to an expected rise of 435% in annual greenhouse gas emissions over the next two decades.
Now the question is: have we already in that pathway?
As per the recent predictions by Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) dated February 28, 2023:
- During the upcoming hot weather season – March to May (MAM), above normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of northeast India, east and central India and some parts of northwest India. Normal to below normal maximum temperatures are most likely over remaining parts of the country.
- During the season (MAM), above normal minimum temperatures are very likely over most parts of the country except south penisnuslar India where normal to below normal minimum temperatures are likely.
- Monthly maximum temperatures for March 2023 are likely to be above normal over most parts of the country except penisnuslar India where normal to below normal maximum temperatures are likely.
- Above normal monthly minimum temperatures are most likely during March, 2023 over most parts of India except south peninsular India where normal to below normal minimum temperatures are likely.
- Enhanced probability of occurrence of Heatwave during March to May season is likely over many regions of Central and adjoining northwest India. A low probability for occurrence of heatwave over central India is likely during March 2023.
- The rainfall in March 2023 averaged over the country is most likely to be normal (83- 117% of LPA). Below normal rainfall is most likely over most areas of northwest India, west central India and some parts of east & northeast India. Normal to above normal rainfall is likely over most parts of peninsular India, east central India and some isolated pockets of northeast India.
IMD’s predictions have already been verified on some occasions. For example: the city of Mumbai has witnessed its hottest day of 2023 on Monday (March 6). On that day, the Santacruz observatory of IMD recorded a maximum temperature of 39.3 0C, six degrees above normal. In March 2023, temperatures were above normal over west Madhya Pradesh too. Fortunately, so far above normal temperatures have not been recorded in most of the hottest places in the country.
So, still we have time to work on defeating the rising trend of surrounding temperature.
The remedy is well known, but implementing that is not so easy
Every tonne of CO2 emitted has an ill-effect of increasing the phenomenon of global warming. Thus, to stop global warming completely, globally complete prevention of CO2 emissions along with other greenhouse gases’ emissions have to be ensured. That means we have to seriously and sincerely work on it without any external pressure. However, it being a far cry from the reality, globally many governments are setting up norms and taking meticulous steps – so that people can’t avoid those. However, still now some are busy in raising debates on whether curbing emissions and economic growth can go hand in hand.
Indian government’s initiative and constraint in this regard
Our country’s initiative in this field is quite impressive, and globally it has been well appreciated. However, considering the present socio-economic scenario, it will take a long time to reach the state of ‘net zero’.
According to a recent IMF (International Monetary Fund) report by Margaux MacDonald and John Spray (economists in the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department), “India is shifting toward greater renewable energy generation while striving to improve energy access, affordability, and security. It’s also poised to be one of the fastest growing economies in coming years, which will in turn sharply boost energy demand. Whether it meets those needs with fossil fuels or green alternatives has the potential to shift the trajectory of its greenhouse gas emissions for many more years to come.
India has made significant progress towards meeting its emissions reductions targets under the Paris Agreement, but with current policies total GHG emissions would nonetheless increase by more than 40% by 2030. While a modest increase in short-term emissions may be necessary to meet poverty reduction and energy security goals, a more rapid scaling up of current policies could help lower emissions considerably over the medium-term and bring India closer to a path to net zero by 2070.”
A few suggestions from IMF
As in most countries, achieving net zero will require adjustments to how people live, work, and get around – and some of these changes will be costly. But upfront action could lower the cost. First, India is expected to increase investments in coal-fired power plants, but by limiting these investments, substantial irreversible fixed costs could be saved. Second, early scaling up of renewable energy allows for a more gradual policy adjustment, which may be less politically costly, and for a more continual adoption of new technologies. Costs can also be amortized over longer periods.
The aforementioned IMF economists’ research shows an alternative emissions trajectory could be achieved by scaling up current policies. They say, “One of our proposals includes a gradual increase in subsidies on the use of renewable energy coupled with higher taxes on emissions, in addition to the many targeted policies that India has focused on. This would have the added benefit of early reduction in the reliance on imported fuels, helping to ensure universal access to energy, and of lessening the negative health effects from pollution. External climate financing and technology transfer would help mitigate costs and ensure sustainability.”
They further state, “In our model, combining renewable subsidies and higher tariffs on coal (roughly equivalent to ramping up India’s existing excise duty on coal) would result in nearly one third lower emissions by 2030 compared to current policies. In this scenario, growing energy demand is met through a gradual increase of renewable energy and by allowing coal power to taper off, thus exceeding the goal of 50% non-fossil fuel electricity capacity. Under such a policy, not only would the share of renewables rise significantly but overall electricity supply would increase.”
With an optimistic note, the IMF economists communicate, “While this policy has clear environmental benefits, we estimate that the policy will result in a modest reduction in the level of real gross domestic product (relative to projections based on current policies) as firms and consumers pay higher taxes. However, enough fiscal revenues would be raised to compensate the poorest citizen to such an extent that the policy would be progressive overall. Additionally, the small cost of this policy is less distortionary than other options.
Lower emissions would have significant benefits. Increasing renewable energy usage and allowing coal to taper-off in this policy scenario would lead to a 2.5% reduction in pollution, saving lives and leading to fewer missed school and workdays. It would also decrease coal imports by 14% by 2030, thus increasing resilience to global changes in energy prices and improving energy security.”
Conclusion
IMF economists’ suggestions are noteworthy, however, in this country, changing or modifying any policy is a time consuming matter. In many cases, managing opposition parties and getting a policy amendment bill passed in the parliament is quite difficult. However, I hope the present government will consider the suggestions. If it is aligned with our goal and helpful to accelerate our journey towards achieving complete ‘net zero’ status, then we have to adopt the same.
IMF economists have focused on the major factor behind the greenhouse gas emission, however, IC-engine driven automobiles too produce around 8% of total Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) emissions in India. Especially, the two-wheelers account for almost 20% of the total carbon dioxide emissions produced by the transport sector. At some places it is even more. For example, in Delhi, the transport sector produces more than 30% of GHGs. Thus, we have to accelerate the process of transformation to electric vehicles too.
By P. K. Chatterjee (PK)
